Why Lai, Who Never Doubts the U.S., is Being Doubted by the U.S.
By Lin Ting-yao
The Storm Media, May 27, 2023
The recent remarks of William Lai, presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), describing the cross-strait relationship as “the federation of brothers” have encountered harsh criticism. Taiwan independence supporters reproach the idea while Beijing calls him a hypocrite. Now even the United States has become skeptical, worrying Mr. Lai would be the president for war.
It is said that after Mr. Lai quoted Koo Kwang-ming, the late advocate for Taiwan independence, as saying “the federation of brothers,” two officials from the Political Section of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) began to ask legislators close to Mr. Lai all week long in a pursuit to clarify what Lai means. American officials wanted to know whether this was the new narrative of Mr. Lai’s cross-strait policy and, if yes, its difference from President Tsai Ing-wen’s position. It seems the AIT is determined to clarify the rationale and thinking behind Lai’s above statement. Mr. Lai’s wording seems to touch a nerve of the United States, indicating the “Lai skepticism” has not dissipated.
Overall, Mr. Lai has made the following mistakes. Mistake one: At the memorial service of Koo in April, Mr. Lai said “the Taiwan Strait is wide enough to accommodate Taiwan and China to co-exist and develop in a federation of brothers.” It was a viewpoint taken from Koo, which was basically a response to Beijing’s “both sides of the strait are one family” statement. It was originally derived from the Seven Steps Verse of Cao Zhi, a prince in the Three Kingdoms, which says “people from the same origin should show mercy to each other.” What Koo meant was to accept the consanguinity and cultural linkage between the two sides of the strait. Based on this brotherhood, mainland China should recognize Taiwan as a country and help Taiwan join the United Nations. After joining the United Nations, then Taiwan will not join any military alliance against China. Taiwan would even provide a US$5 billion aid to China and give back to China all imperial treasures of the National Palace Museum in Taipei.
Koo’s “federation of brothers” sees Taiwan and China as two separate independent countries. On the political spectrum, it sits between the positions of former presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian. Lee Teng-hui’s “special state-to-state relationship” follows “the Two Germanys model” or “the U.K. and U.S. relationship,” while Chen Shui-bian’s “one country on each side of the strait” means two Chinese states, like “the Singapore model.” Nevertheless, in the eyes of Beijing, both these two models are Taiwan independence in disguise and therefore are totally unacceptable.
Mr. Lai’s above statement is obviously not following President Tsai’s position. It is a tough job for those legislators to explain on Mr. Lai’s behalf. Mr. Lai has again confined himself to being “a practical worker for Taiwan independence.” To recreate his image, Mr. Lai is trying to emphasize the word “practical” to dilute the deep green color of “Taiwan independence.” Like the change of slogan from “pro-China and love Taiwan” to “keep peace and protect Taiwan,” an alteration of rhetoric does not change the fact that Mr. Lai’s core supporters are “deep green and independence advocates.” Due to the obvious difference from President Tsai’s position, American scholars and officials are likely to remain skeptical about Mr. Lai’s narrative and promises. Even within the DPP, people are deeply doubtful if Mr. Lai would follow President Tsai’s approach.
Mistake two: In a meeting with former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton, known to be hawkish towards China, Mr. Lai asked him to help Taiwan to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). It was simply barking up the wrong tree. Despite being the Vice President, Mr. Lai has no idea that John Bolton is notorious in the American political circle as a warmonger. Mr. Lai has asked the wrong person to help with the CPTPP case because John Bolton was the one who advised President Donald Trump to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). And the CPTPP was established by the late Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo precisely due to the U.S. withdrawal from the TPP.
Under the “America First” policy of President Trump, the United States withdrew from the TPP, the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, and the Paris Agreement on climate change, and even considered withdrawal from the United Nations at one point. The CPTPP was initiated by Japan and the U.S. is not even a member, not to mention mainland China is eager to join. For Mr. Lai to ask John Bolton to help Taiwan join the CPTPP is like asking the blind for directions.
Moreover, Mr. Lai has mixed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) up with the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and failed to understand the relationship between the two. The United States cannot support Taiwan to join the IPEF due to the opposition from the ASEAN countries to avoid angering China. Therefore, the United States created a plug-in, namely, the U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade, whose contents are almost identical to those of the IPEF. When President Tsai and her national security and economic teams were discussing the 21st-Century Initiative, Vice President Lai was clearly out of the loop as he asked U.S. officials and scholars to help with joining the IPEF.
Mistake three: In meeting with the United States think tank scholar Bonnie Glaser, Mr. Lai breached the American protocol by asking Wu Li-pei, a senior Taiwan independence advocate, to sit in. Mr. Lai seemed to misunderstand that the U.S. “One China” policy might be different from China’s “One China” principle, yet it still does not support Taiwan independence. While Mr. Lai had attended the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington in 2020 when Donald Trump and Mike Pence were present, and was even photographed together with Vice President Kamala Harris in Honduras in 2022, both incidents have unfortunately gained few extra points for Mr. Lai’s grasp of foreign affairs.
Mr. Lai’s four guardian warriors: Chen Chin-te, Pan Men-an, Lin Fe-fan and Cho Jung-tai have formed Mr. Lai’s inner circle. Lin Fei-fan was often consulted on U.S. affairs and recently attended a fellowship program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). However, according to a source, Lin appeared unable to grasp the key points in communicating with some U.S. diplomats. The American diplomats had to explain in plain language before Lin could understand where the problems were. Mr. Lai is expected to transit through the United States in August on his trip to attend the presidential inauguration in Paraguay. In his coming interviews with the U.S. officials, none of his staff has sufficient foreign affairs experience.
In comparison, Hou Yu-ih, presidential candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT), faces a similar problem of lacking experienced staff in national security matters. The New York Times described Mr. Hou as a moderate in that he opposes Taiwan independence and rejects mainland China’s “One Country, Two Systems” formula. By avoiding the two extremes, Mr. Hou possesses a wide range of possibilities, almost like “a blank sheet.” Political commentator Julian Kuo reveals that U.S. officials are eager to meet with Mr. Hou because he is a relatively “safe” candidate. The United States prefers Taiwan not being a variable in geopolitics. Therefore, the United States is worried about Mr. Lai’s “resist China to protect Taiwan” strategy and thinks Mr. Hou’s approach is probably closer to that of President Tsai.
As to who is Beijing’s favorite presidential candidate, Bonnie Glaser, an expert who is familiar with Taiwan politics, indicated that Mr. Lai is seen as being on the radical end of the pro-independence party and his past statements always agitated Beijing. Mr. Hou, on the other hand, is someone that Beijing doesn’t know very well and his being a benshengren may remind Beijing of Lee Teng-hui. Glaser thinks in comparing Mr. Hou and Ko Wen-je, presidential candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party, Beijing perhaps is more comfortable supporting Ko who they have done collaborative projects with in the past.
The next president will decide Taiwan’s future direction and fate. Lai, Hou, and Ko all need a national security team that is familiar with foreign affairs and able to conduct national affairs with steady hands. Any misconception of a national leader can lead to disastrous consequences. The Guns of August (1962) portrays in detail the miscalculations and misconceptions of leaders in many countries that finally led to a catastrophic World War.